Now to Flushing Meadows

Time for the first Slam post.

The thing with calculating points from Slams is that the difference in available points is so huge that pretty much anything can happen. If someone unexpected wins or makes the final you can find them overtaking huge places. So I'm going to try a different format from the last analysis post. I'm still very much working out the best way to do this, so if anyone has any preferences/alternatives I am open to suggestions.


You can see, with 2000 points available most players could potentially move 3 or 4 places with a win, so there isn't really much point in going through everyone individually. So instead I'm just going to go through some of the more notable gaps.

Nadal
Nope, still ain't moving. Like I said, going to be a while before that changes.


Federer and Djokovic
That gap is just negligible. At a Slam, a gap of 70 points is absolutely nothing, they might as well be going into this week on equal points. Once they both get past the 3rd round, Djokovic only has to get one round further to move up to #2 again. They're in the same half too, so a potential semi-final on the horizon. So yeah, the #2/#3 ranking is very uncertain at this point.


Murray
1000 points looks like a big gap - in any other tournament it would be too big to even consider. But we already know Murray is able to reach the final here, and he's shown in the USO series that he's back on form, so it's still worth considering. If he reaches the final he could overtake Djokovic or Federer if either of them fail to reach the quarters. If he takes the title he will definitely overtake at least one of them - both if neither of them reach the final with him. That's what makes Slams so different when it comes to rankings - the points are so huge that with the exception of Federer, whoever takes the title is guaranteed to move up.


Soderling, Davydenko, Berdych and Verdasco
For these 4 the gap is small enough that really anything could happen, so I'm not going to go through and explain each individual scenario, it would just get repetitive. So instead, here's the projected points:


The numbers in red show the rounds each player has to reach to be in with a chance of overtaking. Like I said earlier, the points available are so huge here that anyone reaching the later rounds is in with a pretty good chance of moving up. Matches to watch out for? Not too likely, since obviously all 4 players are in different quarters so semi-finals/final is the only place they can meet. That said, they are all in the same half as their closest rivals (i.e. Verdasco and Berdych in Nadal's half, Soderling and Davydenko in Federer's) so if any of them do reach the semis they could potentially meet the player they could overtake/who could overtake them.


Roddick
The only player who is actually ahead as soon as last year's points are removed. Here's their projected results:


So Verdasco will have to reach at least R16 to stay in front, but that relies on Roddick going out first round, which isn't exactly likely. More likely he'll have to reach quarter-finals and hope he can stay at least 1 round ahead. They're in different halves, so no make-or-break match possible unless they both reach the final.


Del Potro
Think I pretty much explained that one in the last post. Next stop out of the top 30. Ferrer has by far the best chance to take the last top 10 spot - in fact with last year's points removed he is actually slightly ahead of Verdasco, so we could see him leapfrogging 3 players and ending up at #9. They're also the most likely to have a ranking-deciding match - they could potentially meet in the 4th round, and the winner of that match would finish in front. So that's the first match we could see that would have a real impact on the top 10.


So that's the potential US Open standings. Could be a lot of changes coming up, but isn't that always the way with Slams?