Time for the first Slam post.
The thing with calculating points from Slams is that the difference in available points is so huge that pretty much anything can happen. If someone unexpected wins or makes the final you can find them overtaking huge places. So I'm going to try a different format from the last analysis post. I'm still very much working out the best way to do this, so if anyone has any preferences/alternatives I am open to suggestions.
You can see, with 2000 points available most players could potentially move 3 or 4 places with a win, so there isn't really much point in going through everyone individually. So instead I'm just going to go through some of the more notable gaps.
Nadal
Nope, still ain't moving. Like I said, going to be a while before that changes.
Federer and Djokovic
That gap is just negligible. At a Slam, a gap of 70 points is absolutely nothing, they might as well be going into this week on equal points. Once they both get past the 3rd round, Djokovic only has to get one round further to move up to #2 again. They're in the same half too, so a potential semi-final on the horizon. So yeah, the #2/#3 ranking is very uncertain at this point.
Murray
1000 points looks like a big gap - in any other tournament it would be too big to even consider. But we already know Murray is able to reach the final here, and he's shown in the USO series that he's back on form, so it's still worth considering. If he reaches the final he could overtake Djokovic or Federer if either of them fail to reach the quarters. If he takes the title he will definitely overtake at least one of them - both if neither of them reach the final with him. That's what makes Slams so different when it comes to rankings - the points are so huge that with the exception of Federer, whoever takes the title is guaranteed to move up.
Soderling, Davydenko, Berdych and Verdasco
For these 4 the gap is small enough that really anything could happen, so I'm not going to go through and explain each individual scenario, it would just get repetitive. So instead, here's the projected points:
The numbers in red show the rounds each player has to reach to be in with a chance of overtaking. Like I said earlier, the points available are so huge here that anyone reaching the later rounds is in with a pretty good chance of moving up. Matches to watch out for? Not too likely, since obviously all 4 players are in different quarters so semi-finals/final is the only place they can meet. That said, they are all in the same half as their closest rivals (i.e. Verdasco and Berdych in Nadal's half, Soderling and Davydenko in Federer's) so if any of them do reach the semis they could potentially meet the player they could overtake/who could overtake them.
Roddick
The only player who is actually ahead as soon as last year's points are removed. Here's their projected results:
So Verdasco will have to reach at least R16 to stay in front, but that relies on Roddick going out first round, which isn't exactly likely. More likely he'll have to reach quarter-finals and hope he can stay at least 1 round ahead. They're in different halves, so no make-or-break match possible unless they both reach the final.
Del Potro
Think I pretty much explained that one in the last post. Next stop out of the top 30. Ferrer has by far the best chance to take the last top 10 spot - in fact with last year's points removed he is actually slightly ahead of Verdasco, so we could see him leapfrogging 3 players and ending up at #9. They're also the most likely to have a ranking-deciding match - they could potentially meet in the 4th round, and the winner of that match would finish in front. So that's the first match we could see that would have a real impact on the top 10.
So that's the potential US Open standings. Could be a lot of changes coming up, but isn't that always the way with Slams?
Saturday, 28 August 2010
Wednesday, 25 August 2010
The Del Potro Situation
I just got asked about Del Potro's ranking, so I thought I'd put up a bit of a general explanation for anyone who is unclear.
2 weeks on Monday, Del Potro is going to lose 2000 points. That's 63% of his points gone in a single week, leaving him with 1170. If we look at the current rankings, 1170 would move him down to around #35.
If he comes back after the USO he should be able to get direct entry into any tournaments he wants with protected ranking, so he should be able to pick up a few points here and there, but remember, he made it to the final of the World Tour Finals last year. That's 800 points he has no chance to defend, because he doesn't have the slightest hope of qualifying this year. That leaves him going into 2011 with his 180 points from Australia, plus whatever points he picks up in the last 3 months of the year. Just to put that into perspective, a player holding 180 points this week would be ranked #250. To have any chance of staying in the top 100 he would need around 350 points before the end of the year. That doesn't sound like too much when you're used to talking about players whose points are in the thousands, but considering he's not played a single match since January, that could be a tough call.
However, that's not a problem for next year, because he'll have his protected ranking. Now PR doesn't actually have any affect on the rankings as such, it's just a way for players to get into tournaments without having to ask for a wild card when their true ranking isn't enough to get them direct entry. So say a player is ranked #100 but had a protected ranking of #10, they would still be able to get into a tournament where the direct entry cut-off was #50 without having to go through qualies or ask for a wild card. They wouldn't be seeded for the tournament, but they would be able to play it. His protected ranking will be valid for 9 months, but he can only use it for up to 9 tournaments. After that he'll have to rely on his true ranking to get him into tournaments, so we may see him unable to get direct entry into Masters for a little while, but some of them may choose to give him wildcards once his PR runs out. Either way, I can see him getting back with a decent ranking fairly quickly, tho obviously it may take a while til we see him back at his best. Nalbandian has already shown us that a couple of decent runs in Masters/500s is enough to get you back well inside the top 50 from nowhere, so let's see if he can do the same.
US Open post will be coming next
2 weeks on Monday, Del Potro is going to lose 2000 points. That's 63% of his points gone in a single week, leaving him with 1170. If we look at the current rankings, 1170 would move him down to around #35.
If he comes back after the USO he should be able to get direct entry into any tournaments he wants with protected ranking, so he should be able to pick up a few points here and there, but remember, he made it to the final of the World Tour Finals last year. That's 800 points he has no chance to defend, because he doesn't have the slightest hope of qualifying this year. That leaves him going into 2011 with his 180 points from Australia, plus whatever points he picks up in the last 3 months of the year. Just to put that into perspective, a player holding 180 points this week would be ranked #250. To have any chance of staying in the top 100 he would need around 350 points before the end of the year. That doesn't sound like too much when you're used to talking about players whose points are in the thousands, but considering he's not played a single match since January, that could be a tough call.
However, that's not a problem for next year, because he'll have his protected ranking. Now PR doesn't actually have any affect on the rankings as such, it's just a way for players to get into tournaments without having to ask for a wild card when their true ranking isn't enough to get them direct entry. So say a player is ranked #100 but had a protected ranking of #10, they would still be able to get into a tournament where the direct entry cut-off was #50 without having to go through qualies or ask for a wild card. They wouldn't be seeded for the tournament, but they would be able to play it. His protected ranking will be valid for 9 months, but he can only use it for up to 9 tournaments. After that he'll have to rely on his true ranking to get him into tournaments, so we may see him unable to get direct entry into Masters for a little while, but some of them may choose to give him wildcards once his PR runs out. Either way, I can see him getting back with a decent ranking fairly quickly, tho obviously it may take a while til we see him back at his best. Nalbandian has already shown us that a couple of decent runs in Masters/500s is enough to get you back well inside the top 50 from nowhere, so let's see if he can do the same.
US Open post will be coming next
Sunday, 15 August 2010
Looking to Cincinnati
So here's the first tournament post. Still working out exactly the best way to do this so I don't know if I will keep this kind of format, but let's see how it works.
First of all, here's the numbers:
So let's start from the top. Nadal. There's not really much to say there, it's going to be quite a while before anyone can get close to challenging him for the top spot. In fact even with his absolute worst case scenario it would be Shanghai before anyone could overtake him. I'm really not going to have much to say on him for a while.
So moving on.
Federer and Djokovic. They're running pretty close, a round either way could be enough to swing it, so we need a bit more detail:
So we can see Federer needs at least a semi-final to stay ahead. If Federer has a SF and Djokovic only reaches R16 we'll have an unusual situation where they will actually be joint #2, since they've also got the same number of tournaments. Not sure what would happen with the seeding for the US Open then, but my guess would be Roger as 2nd seed since he was the finalist last year. Could be rather interesting though. [EDIT: after scouring the ATP rulebook I've found that in this situation they would rank the players by their total points from Grand Slams, Masters 1000 tournaments and World Tour Finals. This would put Federer at #2 with 6035 points ahead of Djokovic with 5010]
Beyond that it's pretty straight forward - if Djokovic reaches the quarters Federer needs a final showing, if he gets past the quarters Federer needs the title. Since they're in opposite halves of the draw the only way we would get a "match for #2" would be if they both reach the final. Either way, it's quite an interesting week for them.
So now for Murray and Soderling. Murray's still a fair way off the top 3, so that's not a consideration, but the gap between him and Soderling isn't huge:
He's just massively improved his chances of staying ahead with that win in Toronto, but he can't let Soderling get further than him in the draw if he wants to defend his ranking. They're in the same half, so there is a potential semi-final match between them, with the winner taking the #4 ranking. Watch this space.
Soderling is pretty safe from Davydenko - the only way he could be overtaken would be with a pre-semis loss for the former and a title for the latter. Nothing more to say on them really.
However, Davydenko, Berdych and Verdasco are all in a pretty similar situation to one another:
If Berdych/Verdasco takes the title they will move up. If they reach the final they will overtake if Davydenko/Berdych loses before the semis. If Berdych reaches the semis and Davydenko has a first round loss he will move up, but the same is not true of Verdasco as they would end up on the same points in this situation but Verdasco is carrying more tournaments so he would stay behind. Decisive matches aren't too likely - Berdych and Verdasco are in opposite halves so could only meet in the final. Berdych and Davydenko could meet in the semis, but then Berdych would have to go on to win the final to move up.
With Del Potro and Tsonga both out injured there's obviously no chance of them moving up. However, there are a few people who could be in with a decent chance of pushing their way into the top 10 as a result. Ferrer could overtake Tsonga with a quarter-final and Del Potro with a semi-final. Cilic or Roddick could overtake both with a semi-final. Either way, we know Del Potro won't be defending his USO title which accounts for 2/3 of his points, so whether it happens now or in a couple of weeks we know that someone, probably one of these guys, will be joining the top 10 soon enough.
I think that's all there is to say for this week. I hope that all makes sense, though please let me know if anything needs clarifying or if there's any extra questions I might be able to help with :D
First of all, here's the numbers:
So let's start from the top. Nadal. There's not really much to say there, it's going to be quite a while before anyone can get close to challenging him for the top spot. In fact even with his absolute worst case scenario it would be Shanghai before anyone could overtake him. I'm really not going to have much to say on him for a while.
So moving on.
Federer and Djokovic. They're running pretty close, a round either way could be enough to swing it, so we need a bit more detail:
So we can see Federer needs at least a semi-final to stay ahead. If Federer has a SF and Djokovic only reaches R16 we'll have an unusual situation where they will actually be joint #2, since they've also got the same number of tournaments. Not sure what would happen with the seeding for the US Open then, but my guess would be Roger as 2nd seed since he was the finalist last year. Could be rather interesting though. [EDIT: after scouring the ATP rulebook I've found that in this situation they would rank the players by their total points from Grand Slams, Masters 1000 tournaments and World Tour Finals. This would put Federer at #2 with 6035 points ahead of Djokovic with 5010]
Beyond that it's pretty straight forward - if Djokovic reaches the quarters Federer needs a final showing, if he gets past the quarters Federer needs the title. Since they're in opposite halves of the draw the only way we would get a "match for #2" would be if they both reach the final. Either way, it's quite an interesting week for them.
So now for Murray and Soderling. Murray's still a fair way off the top 3, so that's not a consideration, but the gap between him and Soderling isn't huge:
He's just massively improved his chances of staying ahead with that win in Toronto, but he can't let Soderling get further than him in the draw if he wants to defend his ranking. They're in the same half, so there is a potential semi-final match between them, with the winner taking the #4 ranking. Watch this space.
Soderling is pretty safe from Davydenko - the only way he could be overtaken would be with a pre-semis loss for the former and a title for the latter. Nothing more to say on them really.
However, Davydenko, Berdych and Verdasco are all in a pretty similar situation to one another:
If Berdych/Verdasco takes the title they will move up. If they reach the final they will overtake if Davydenko/Berdych loses before the semis. If Berdych reaches the semis and Davydenko has a first round loss he will move up, but the same is not true of Verdasco as they would end up on the same points in this situation but Verdasco is carrying more tournaments so he would stay behind. Decisive matches aren't too likely - Berdych and Verdasco are in opposite halves so could only meet in the final. Berdych and Davydenko could meet in the semis, but then Berdych would have to go on to win the final to move up.
With Del Potro and Tsonga both out injured there's obviously no chance of them moving up. However, there are a few people who could be in with a decent chance of pushing their way into the top 10 as a result. Ferrer could overtake Tsonga with a quarter-final and Del Potro with a semi-final. Cilic or Roddick could overtake both with a semi-final. Either way, we know Del Potro won't be defending his USO title which accounts for 2/3 of his points, so whether it happens now or in a couple of weeks we know that someone, probably one of these guys, will be joining the top 10 soon enough.
I think that's all there is to say for this week. I hope that all makes sense, though please let me know if anything needs clarifying or if there's any extra questions I might be able to help with :D
Saturday, 14 August 2010
Introduction
I'm a huge fan of tennis. I follow it pretty much week in week out whenever I can. But as well as that I am a scientist, a mathematician, a geek. Say it how you will, I'm a sad person who likes sitting around analysing numbers. So when I first started following tennis and I saw the (not always entirely logical) points system they use for the rankings I couldn't really stop myself from investigating. I sat down and worked it all out and made tables and spreadsheets and the like to work out how it all came together.
I realised that it was maybe a bit of a waste having all of this analysis here without sharing it. I know there are people who don't get the ranking system. I know that most people aren't going to sit down and work out who needs to do what to finish where. But since I'm the kind of person who likes doing that sort of thing, I thought I'd make myself useful and share my findings.
For the most part this blog is going to be factual. I have my own journal for expressing my own opinions on tennis (of which I have many), but this is purely analytical. I've not completely decided on the exact format that it will take so it's going to be a bit of a work in progress, but here's the basic idea.
Each big tournament (by which I mean the Slams and Masters - more than that and it gets too complicated for here) I'll post an analysis of how the rankings could change for the top 10 - who's safe, who's in danger of sliding down, who could climb up. I'll try and do it once the draw has been made so I can be a bit more thorough about it, and also so I can look for any particularly decisive matches to look out for. If possible I'll do this in the weekend before the tournament starts, tho obviously if they're on consecutive weeks (as is the case this week) then it will have to wait until the final is played.
I will also do occasional extra posts analysing other things to do with the points, rankings or general stats. To be perfectly honest it's mostly self-indulgent as I get curious about these things so have to investigate, but I know there are some people who will find it interesting so I might as well share it with everyone. This could be anything, from checking who is looking like a single surface specialist, who has the most evenly spread points, who has a lot to defend and who can only go up. Also when the ATP is cocking up the points (surprisingly frequent). I am totally open to suggestions for that sort of thing.
So anyway, that's me. I hope people do find it interesting. Hopefully I will have something ready for Cincinnati on Monday
I realised that it was maybe a bit of a waste having all of this analysis here without sharing it. I know there are people who don't get the ranking system. I know that most people aren't going to sit down and work out who needs to do what to finish where. But since I'm the kind of person who likes doing that sort of thing, I thought I'd make myself useful and share my findings.
For the most part this blog is going to be factual. I have my own journal for expressing my own opinions on tennis (of which I have many), but this is purely analytical. I've not completely decided on the exact format that it will take so it's going to be a bit of a work in progress, but here's the basic idea.
Each big tournament (by which I mean the Slams and Masters - more than that and it gets too complicated for here) I'll post an analysis of how the rankings could change for the top 10 - who's safe, who's in danger of sliding down, who could climb up. I'll try and do it once the draw has been made so I can be a bit more thorough about it, and also so I can look for any particularly decisive matches to look out for. If possible I'll do this in the weekend before the tournament starts, tho obviously if they're on consecutive weeks (as is the case this week) then it will have to wait until the final is played.
I will also do occasional extra posts analysing other things to do with the points, rankings or general stats. To be perfectly honest it's mostly self-indulgent as I get curious about these things so have to investigate, but I know there are some people who will find it interesting so I might as well share it with everyone. This could be anything, from checking who is looking like a single surface specialist, who has the most evenly spread points, who has a lot to defend and who can only go up. Also when the ATP is cocking up the points (surprisingly frequent). I am totally open to suggestions for that sort of thing.
So anyway, that's me. I hope people do find it interesting. Hopefully I will have something ready for Cincinnati on Monday
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