Looking to Cincinnati

So here's the first tournament post. Still working out exactly the best way to do this so I don't know if I will keep this kind of format, but let's see how it works.

First of all, here's the numbers:


So let's start from the top. Nadal. There's not really much to say there, it's going to be quite a while before anyone can get close to challenging him for the top spot. In fact even with his absolute worst case scenario it would be Shanghai before anyone could overtake him. I'm really not going to have much to say on him for a while.


So moving on.
Federer and Djokovic. They're running pretty close, a round either way could be enough to swing it, so we need a bit more detail:


So we can see Federer needs at least a semi-final to stay ahead. If Federer has a SF and Djokovic only reaches R16 we'll have an unusual situation where they will actually be joint #2, since they've also got the same number of tournaments. Not sure what would happen with the seeding for the US Open then, but my guess would be Roger as 2nd seed since he was the finalist last year. Could be rather interesting though. [EDIT: after scouring the ATP rulebook I've found that in this situation they would rank the players by their total points from Grand Slams, Masters 1000 tournaments and World Tour Finals. This would put Federer at #2 with 6035 points ahead of Djokovic with 5010]

Beyond that it's pretty straight forward - if Djokovic reaches the quarters Federer needs a final showing, if he gets past the quarters Federer needs the title. Since they're in opposite halves of the draw the only way we would get a "match for #2" would be if they both reach the final. Either way, it's quite an interesting week for them.


So now for Murray and Soderling. Murray's still a fair way off the top 3, so that's not a consideration, but the gap between him and Soderling isn't huge:


He's just massively improved his chances of staying ahead with that win in Toronto, but he can't let Soderling get further than him in the draw if he wants to defend his ranking. They're in the same half, so there is a potential semi-final match between them, with the winner taking the #4 ranking. Watch this space.


Soderling is pretty safe from Davydenko - the only way he could be overtaken would be with a pre-semis loss for the former and a title for the latter. Nothing more to say on them really.

However, Davydenko, Berdych and Verdasco are all in a pretty similar situation to one another:


If Berdych/Verdasco takes the title they will move up. If they reach the final they will overtake if Davydenko/Berdych loses before the semis. If Berdych reaches the semis and Davydenko has a first round loss he will move up, but the same is not true of Verdasco as they would end up on the same points in this situation but Verdasco is carrying more tournaments so he would stay behind. Decisive matches aren't too likely - Berdych and Verdasco are in opposite halves so could only meet in the final. Berdych and Davydenko could meet in the semis, but then Berdych would have to go on to win the final to move up.

With Del Potro and Tsonga both out injured there's obviously no chance of them moving up. However, there are a few people who could be in with a decent chance of pushing their way into the top 10 as a result. Ferrer could overtake Tsonga with a quarter-final and Del Potro with a semi-final. Cilic or Roddick could overtake both with a semi-final. Either way, we know Del Potro won't be defending his USO title which accounts for 2/3 of his points, so whether it happens now or in a couple of weeks we know that someone, probably one of these guys, will be joining the top 10 soon enough.


I think that's all there is to say for this week. I hope that all makes sense, though please let me know if anything needs clarifying or if there's any extra questions I might be able to help with :D